Quantum-Safe

On top of the chain sits a thirteen-factor, fully explainable scoring model — momentum, money, management and quantum-native dimensions, every conclusion tracing back to a measured source. Built on RBTX's quantum-safe industry research (three primary reports, a 16-table hard-data workbook) and Psi's multi-source live-data engine (27,000+ items, snapshotted point-in-time). The flagship of the same engine — the Quantum-Computing Sector Signal — runs the full model on the listed quantum universe.

PQC compounds; QKD crawls.

The global quantum-safe market runs from about USD 2.70 bn (2025) to USD 11.8 bn (2030) and on toward USD 76.8 bn (2035). But the sector is not one thing: post-quantum cryptography (PQC) compounds at ~49% a year and takes ~92% of the pie by 2035, while quantum key distribution (QKD) grows at only ~6.7%.

Any “quantum-safe” read that weights QKD and PQC equally is, in our view, an allocation error. The two are a software track and a hardware track on different clocks.

• Finding 01
  PQC dominates
  ~49% CAGR to 2035, the only quantum-safe segment led by North America (42% share). QKD stays a single-digit-growth niche.
• Finding 02
  A sector-level mispricing
  VC funding fell from ~$843M (2021) to ~$102M (2025) while adoption rose — a divergence we read at the industry level.
• Finding 03
  Value is migrating
  NIST standardization commoditized the algorithms; the next layer of value is migration & crypto-agility, not algorithm IP.
• Finding 04
  Three-way split + Canada
  US leads PQC, China leads QKD, the EU coordinates — and Canada is #3 in PQC R&D firms, a structural edge for RBTX Canada.

• Point-in-time
  Scores frozen before outcomes
  Every scoring run is snapshotted as-of its data date — what we said, when we said it. No retroactive edits, no survivorship bias.
• Published accuracy
  IC on a fixed clock
  From August 2026 we compute rank information coefficients against forward outcomes on a fixed schedule — and report them, win or lose.
• Guarded pipeline
  Flagged, not scored
  Entity resolution with quantum-relevance filters — a government award that isn't quantum doesn't score. Regression-tested end to end; thin evidence means no rank.
• Risk dimension
  Runway is scored
  Balance-sheet endurance joined the model — the rebound thesis only backs vendors that can reach the window.

A forecast you can't audit is an opinion. Signal base as of 2026-07-05.

Confidence and horizon are stated, not implied — and revised as the live data moves. These are sector-level research judgments, not security recommendations.

The English figures above are rebuilt from our original Chinese research charts. The source set, kept in the working language of the RBTX analysis, is shown here for provenance.

市场轨迹 — 三赛道规模与 PQC 主导（中文原图）。

赛道级「错杀」— 资本情绪↓ × 采用↑（中文原图）。

标准化就绪度 — PQC 已标准化 / QKD 认证缺口（中文原图）。

PQC 研发企业国别 — 加拿大全球第 3（中文原图）。